tirsdag 20. oktober 2015

3,75% of the atmospheric CO2 comes from humans

Thursday, July 17, 2014

New paper finds only ~3.75% of atmospheric CO2 is man-made from burning of fossil fuels 

CORRECTED POST of "New paper finds only ~3.75% of atmospheric CO2 is man-made from burning of fossil fuels":

Thanks to notification from and email conversations with the lead author Denica Bozhinova of the paper "Simulating the integrated summertime Δ14CO2 signature from anthropogenic emissions over Western Europe, the claim made in the original Hockey Schtick post that ~3.75% of background atmospheric CO2 is man-made from burning of fossil fuels is hereby retracted due to a misinterpretation of the paper. The author has clarified that her paper does not address the mole fraction or concentration of CO2 of fossil fuel origin present in background levels of CO2, it addresses the mole fraction or concentration of CO2 of fossil fuel origin of recent emissions only. 

Regarding the conclusion of the paper which states in part
"...the 6-month average CO2ff concentrations in the lower 1 km of the atmosphere across Western Europe are between 1 to 18 ppm."
I asked the author via email
"My understanding now is that CO2ff in your paper is referring to the concentration of CO2ff that is above background levels of CO2 rather than absolute concentrations of CO2ff, thus please confirm my understanding is correct that your conclusion may be stated as "...the 6-month average [CO2 concentrations of fossil-fuel origin that are above background concentrations of CO2] in the lower 1 km of the atmosphere across Western Europe are between 1 to 18 ppm," and that it is not possible to determine from your data the absolute concentrations of CO2 of fossil fuel origin [background + recently added]."
and the lead author has replied in her 3rd email today
"Your last paragraph describing the complicated fossil fuel/background relationship used in study is in fact totally correct. I am sorry that probably it is not going to be of use for your draft, however I am certain that there are other studies that investigate the issue you were trying to address." Read more ..

In dept explonation (Video Lecture) ..  
Climate Scientist Murry Salby Returns! - Presents New Science 


Published on Jun 24, 2015

Author of the seminal book on climate; "Physics of the Atmosphere & Climate" Professor Murry Salby is without doubt one of the best Climate Scientists on the planet. In a lecture in London on the 17th March, 2015, he reveals new work which shows that;

1) The climate sensitivity is below 0.2c - confirmed by 3 independent methods.
2) Most of the observed increase in atmospheric CO2 is not anthropogenic.
3) CO2 movements and concentrations are largely determined by nature, not man; consequently, any cuts we make to our CO2 emissions will not have the desired effect, and are a costly waste of time.
4) CO2, whether man-made or not, does not 'drive' the climate system.

Professor Murry Salby has been vilified by enviro-alarmists and the left for his scientific results. Salby was disenfranchised and exiled from academia in Australia for daring to speak such “sacrilege.” In a case similar to many others we have seen in Australia, and across the west, he was the subject of University hate and was finally sacked while he was on a lecture tour in Europe; his employer, Macquarie University of NSW, sacking him from his position as Professor of Climate Science. The University board cancelled his return ticket home, stranding him in Paris. All Salby's work was confiscated and has still not been returned to him.

The pursuit of genuine Science in the field of climate - and free speech are Dead in most Western Universities: Other cases where top scientists were vilified and sacked or demoted by a University for the results of their science or for their views on the climate include; Bob Carter, Murry Salby Lennart Bengtsson, David Legates, George Taylor, Caleb Rossiter, Bjorn Lomborg, Henk Tennekes, Askel Winn-Nielsen, Alfonso Sutera, Anonio Speranza and scores of others.

Monday, July 1, 2013

Swedish scientist replicates Dr. Murry Salby's work, finding man-made CO2 does not drive climate change

Swedish climate scientist Pehr Björnbom has recently replicated the work of Dr. Murry Salby, finding that temperature, not man-made CO2, drives CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. Dr. Björnbom confirms Salby's hypothesis that the rate of change in carbon dioxide concentration in the air follows an equation that only depends on temperature change, detailed in his report Reconstruction of Murry Salby's theory that carbon dioxide increase is temperature driven. Read more ..  



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Correlation of Net CO2 emissions with climate properties shows that the growth in CO2 may be natural
Story submitted by WUWT reader Steve Brown
The narrative of the catastrophic anthropogenic global warming has been challenged at many levels but this presentation by Professor Murry Salby, Chair of Climate at Macquarie University rips up the very foundations of the story.
The talk (in the video below) was given at the Sydney Institute 2nd Aug 2011
He elegantly shows that there is a solid correlation between natural climate factors (global temperature and soil moisture content) and the net gain (or loss) in global atmospheric content when the latter is averaged over a two year period. The hanging question remains, if natural factors drive more than 90% of the growth in CO2 how significant is the contribution of human generated emissions. The answer is simple… not very. Read more .. 
The video doesn't work on WUWT, use this link: Salby 02.08.2011 
This is why he is right: Henry's Law 

The Mathematics of Carbon Dioxide

Part 1 of the series (Part 1) is here ..

Part 2 of the series (Part 2) is here ..
Part 3 of the series (Part 3) is here ..
Part 3 of the series (Part 4) is here ..


Carbon cycle questions

by Judith Curry
I just finished listening to Murry Salby’s podcast on Climate Change and Carbon.  Wow.
The abstract for his talk is here:
PROFESSOR MURRY SALBY
Chair of Climate, Macquarie University
Atmospheric Science, Climate Change and Carbon – Some Facts
Carbon dioxide is emitted by human activities as well as a host of natural processes. The satellite record, in concert with instrumental observations, is now long enough to have collected a population of climate perturbations, wherein the Earth-atmosphere system was disturbed from equilibrium. Introduced naturally, those perturbations reveal that net global emission of CO2 (combined from all sources, human and natural) is controlled by properties of the general circulation – properties internal to the climate system that regulate emission from natural sources. The strong dependence on internal properties indicates that emission of CO2 from natural sources, which accounts for 96 per cent of its overall emission, plays a major role in observed changes of CO2Independent of human emission, this contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide is only marginally predictable and not controllable.
Professor Murry Salby holds the Climate Chair at Macquarie University and has had a  lengthy career as a world-recognised researcher and academic in the field of Atmospheric Physics. He has held positions at leading research institutions, including the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Princeton University, and the University of Colorado, with invited professorships at universities in Europe and Asia. At Macquarie University, Professor Salby uses satellite data and supercomputing to explore issues surrounding changes of global climate and climate variability over Australia. Professor Salby is the author of Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics, and Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate due out in 2011. Professor Salby’s latest research makes a timely and highly-relevant contribution to the current discourse on climate.
The podcast for his talk is here.  Unfortunately there is no video so you can’t see his graphs.  But the talk is very lucid, you can certainly get the point.  The entire podcast is an hour, with his formal presentation about a half hour, and questions for the remaining half hour.
This talk was given in June at the IUGG meeting in Melbourne Australia, and apparently created quite a stir.    A journal paper is in press, expected to be published in about 6 months.  Some of the results will be in his forthcoming bookPhysics of the Atmosphere and Climate that will be available Sept 30.
Andrew Bolt has some reactions in the Herald Sun:
Salby’s argument is that the usual evidence given for the rise in CO2 being man-made is mistaken. It’s usually taken to be the fact that as carbon dioxide concentrations in the atmosphere increase, the 1 per cent of CO2 that’s the heavier carbon isotope ratio c13 declines in proportion. Plants, which produced our coal and oil, prefer the lighter c12 isotope. Hence, it must be our gasses that caused this relative decline.
But that conclusion holds true only if there are no other sources of c12 increases which are not human caused. Salby says there are – the huge increases in carbon dioxide concentrations caused by such things as spells of warming and El Ninos, which cause concentration levels to increase independently of human emissions. He suggests that its warmth which tends to produce more CO2, rather than vice versa – which, incidentally is the story of the past recoveries from ice ages.
The Earth’s carbon cycle is not a topic on which I have any expertise.  A good overview article is provided by NASA’s earthobservatory.
Climate models have begun to include an interactive carbon cycle in the CMIP5 simulations.  NASA has been trying to launch a satellite to measure global carbon, an effort which remains troubled and plagued by continuing delays.
JC comments:  If Salby’s analysis holds up, this could revolutionize AGW science.  Salby and I were both at the University of Colorado-Boulder in the 1990’s, but I don’t know him well personally.  He is the author of a popular introductory graduate text Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics.  He is an excellent lecturer and teacher, which comes across in his podcast.  He has the reputation of a thorough and careful researcher.  While all this is frustratingly preliminary without publication, slides, etc., it is sufficiently important that we should start talking about these issues.  I’ll close with this text from Bolt’s article:
He said he had an “involuntary gag reflex” whenever someone said the “science was settled”.
“Anyone who thinks the science of this complex thing is settled is in Fantasia.”  More .. 

Stop Press – Climate Talk on cable today

Anne Henderson has sent out an email to announce that the talk at The Sydney Institute last night will be on cable today. Intended to trash the post this evening but will leave up in case people want to comment on the show.
Channel 648 (Foxtel) will be showing Murry Salby’s talk at 3pm this afternoon and 7pm this evening.
PROFESSOR MURRY SALBY
Chair of Climate, Macquarie University
Atmospheric Science, Climate Change and Carbon – Some Facts
Carbon dioxide is emitted by human activities as well as a host of natural processes. The satellite record, in concert with instrumental observations, is now long enough to have collected a population of climate perturbations, wherein the Earth-atmosphere system was disturbed from equilibrium. Introduced naturally, those perturbations reveal that net global emission of CO2 (combined from all sources, human and natural) is controlled by properties of the general circulation – properties internal to the climate system that regulate emission from natural sources. The strong dependence on internal properties indicates that emission of CO2 from natural sources, which accounts for 96 per cent of its overall emission, plays a major role in observed changes of CO2.Independent of human emission, this contribution to atmospheric carbon dioxide is only marginally predictable and not controllable.
  Professor Murry Salby holds the Climate Chair at Macquarie University and has had a  lengthy career as a world-recognised researcher and academic in the field of Atmospheric Physics. He has held positions at leading research institutions, including the US National Center for Atmospheric Research, Princeton University, and the University of Colorado, with invited professorships at universities in Europe and Asia. At Macquarie University, Professor Salby uses satellite data and supercomputing to explore issues surrounding changes of global climate and climate variability over Australia. Professor Salby is the author of Fundamentals of Atmospheric Physics, and Physics of the Atmosphere and Climate due out in 2011. Professor Salby’s latest research makes a timely and highly-relevant contribution to the current discourse on climate. More ..